Cognitive Scaffold

Preparing your thinking workspace

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MENTAL MODEL · M4584

The Duck Curve

The Duck Curve
BusinessHigh supportEconomics
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Updated 2026-08-02

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INTRODUCTION

English translation pending.

CORE DEFINITION

Observed since the 2010s by the California Independent System Operator, the duck curve plots net load, total demand minus renewable output, against time of day. Solar production hollows out the middle of the day, forming the belly, and its disappearance at sunset coincides with the evening peak, forming the neck. The shape is a mismatch between the generation mix and the load profile, not a failure of renewables.

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

psychology

Reduce cognitive load

- Subtract before concluding: net out the variable supply to see the real burden on the rest of the system - Find the ramp: locate where the system must change fastest, since that is the binding constraint - Price the flexibility: count storage, dispatchable capacity, and demand response as the true cost of the cheap hours

anchor

Anchor fast decisions

Solar output peaks at midday and vanishes at dusk, so net load dips in the middle of the day and climbs sharply in the evening. The steepness of that climb, not the total energy, determines how much flexible capacity the grid must hold ready. Cheap daytime electricity therefore arrives bundled with an expensive flexibility requirement.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    zh.wikipedia.orghttps://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%B4%A8%E5%AD%90%E6%9B%B2%E7%B7%9AZH · Explicit
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