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MENTAL MODEL · M2603

Wright's Law

Wright's Law
Learn & MetacognitionHigh supportLearning Science
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Version 1.0.0 · Updated 2026-07-28

CORE DEFINITION

Every time the cumulative production of a product doubles, its cost decreases by a constant percentage (typically 10%-30%). This predicts cost declines more accurately than Moore's Law (which is time-based). -

SCAFFOLDING EFFECT

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Quantitative prediction of economies of scale. - Why do electric vehicle batteries become cheaper? Not because of the passage of time, but because of how many times production has doubled. If you want to predict the adoption speed of a new technology, watch its cumulative production. This guides us: in the early stage, it's worth selling at a loss to boost sales, because that is the only path to cost reduction.

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Wright's law (experience curve) states that each time cumulative production doubles, unit production cost decreases by a fixed percentage, resulting from the cumulative effects of learning, scale, and process improvements. It emphasizes 'learning by doing' more than mere economies of scale.

MINIMUM ACTION

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Source support: Explicit

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    en.wikipedia.orghttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effectZH · Explicit
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